30/5/11 - Second Biggest Weekly Drop Ever In Treasurys Held In The Fed's Custodial Account As Foreigners Dump

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/26/2011 20:55 -0400

There was one truly interesting observation in this week's Fed balance sheet update: not that the actual balance sheet hit a new all time record (which it did at $2.779 trillion), or that the Fed added another $24 billion in Treasurys to its balance sheet, or that total reserves hit a new all time record, increasing by $53 billion to $1.59 trillion. No. The biggest surprise was that in the just ended week, Treasury securities held in custodial accounts at the Fed, considered by some the best real-time representation of foreign holdings of US Treasurys considering that the TIC update is not only wildly inaccurate in its monthly update, but is also 3 months delayed, dropped by the largest amount in 4 years. From a total of $2.704 trillion, USTs held in custodial accounts declined by $18.7 billion to $2.685 billion. This is the second largest decline in history, only topped by the $22.1 billion in the week of August 15, 2007 which is the week that followed the great quant crash of 2007 that wiped out, among others, Goldman Alpha. This observation is in stark contrast to the recent record strength of bond issuance, after both the 5 and 7 Years auctions posted record Bid to Cover investor interest.

One explanation is that while foreign investors are aggressively buying up the belly of the curve, they are even more aggressively selling the other parts of the curve, namely both the short (sub 2 Year) and the Long (10-30 Year). Another explanation is that the weekly change in Custodial data is largely noise and has no bearing on total foreign holdings of debt, which however we would largely discount. Another question is whether the large outflow from bonds is a consequences to recent market volatility, or is the basis for one: i.e., will the money be used to purchase stocks, or, if as China is posturing, is this merely capital leaving the US and entering Europe. Lastly, the nearly $20 billion in USDs likely will have to be converted to another FX denomination: should any notably USD weakness be observed in the next several days, this could well be a reason.
A chart of total Custodial Treasury holdings:

And old faithful: the neverending weekly "record" Fed balance sheet chart:

30/5/11 - China Passes India As World’s Biggest Gold Buyer

Chinese investors are snapping up gold bars and coins, buying more than ever before in the first quarter of 2011 and overtaking Indian buyers as the world’s biggest purchasers of the metal.

China’s investment demand for gold more than doubled to 90.9 metric tons in the first three months of the year, outpacing India’s modest rise to 85.6 tons, the World Gold Council said in its quarterly report on Thursday. China now accounts for 25% of gold investment demand, compared with India’s 23%.

The report underscores the rising appetite for gold among the growing middle-class in China. Fears of the country’s soaring inflation, as well as a search for new investments, is luring investors to gold, and marketing of the precious metal has also increased in recent months.

“I think people will be surprised by the strength in the Chinese demand, but we think this is a trend that is set to continue,” said Eily Ong, an investment research manager at the gold council.

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Historically, India has been the largest investment market for gold. In 2007, just before investing in gold began to take off globally, India’s physical gold demand accounted for 61% of the world’s total. China’s was 9%. In terms of total consumer demand, which also included jewelry, India is still a bigger consumer of gold than China, taking in 291.8 tons in the first quarter, compared with China’s 233.8 tons.

Still, the voracious appetite shown by Chinese buyers prompted the gold council to increase its forecast for the nation’s demand.

“In March 2010, we predicted that gold demand in China would double by 2020; however, we believe that this doubling may in fact be achieved sooner,” said Albert Cheng, the World Gold Council ‘s managing director for the Far East. “Increasing prosperity in the world’s most populous country coupled with their high affinity for gold will serve to drive demand in the long term.”

Aside from having more money, Chinese investors are also focused on using gold as a protection against rising consumer prices. Unlike paper currencies, gold retains its value when prices increase. That has prompted many Chinese investors to flock to the precious metal.

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Gold also is favored by savvy investors as an alternative investment vehicle to assets like shares and real estate. Chinese stock markets have been a disappointment recently, and the government has pledged to clamp down on housing speculation.

Many banks and jewelry stores in China have added outlets to sell gold bars and coins in recent months.

“Those new outlets have not only created demand but also required a starting stock,” which has an impact on total gold demand, said Philip Klapwijk, chairman of GFMS Ltd., a London-based metals consultancy that compiles the data for the gold council’s report.

Investment demand is one part of a broader base of buying. Jewelry demand remains another large source of gold purchases, the segment that India continues to dominate. India’s jewelry sector took in 206.2 tons in the quarter, well above China’s 142.9 tons. Still, China is catching up there, too. Its jewelry demand rose 21% in the quarter, faster than the 12% rise in India.

Demand for gold in the Chinese technology sector is also buoyant, with the country becoming an increasingly important center for electronic-component manufacturing and assembly, the gold council said.

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The surge in overall buying came at a time when gold prices took a rare breather from their relentless march higher. Gold prices fell about 8% in late January to about $1,300 an ounce. Since then, prices have risen to $1,492.20 an ounce on Thursday and the metal is up 5% for the year so far.

Global gold investment demand increased by 52% to 366.4 tons in the first quarter, helping offset a 56-ton outflow from exchange-traded funds, which are popular investment tools in the West.

In developed countries, some investors have switched into physical gold holdings from ETFs. Demand in Germany and Switzerland both more than doubled, while the U.S. had a 54% jump to 22.5 tons during the quarter.

As the world’s largest gold producer, China churned out 350.9 tons in 2010, but it wasn’t enough to sate total demand— including bullion, jewelry and technology uses—of more than 700 tons, according to the gold council’s report. As demand continues to outpace supply, analysts expect China to import more bullion.

Thursday’s report covers only private-sector demand, but one wild card for the world’s gold market is how much gold China has been adding to its foreign reserves. Governments tend to announce their purchases after they buy.

29/5/11 - Bond Expert Gundlach: Housing Collapse to Spark Second Financial Meltdown Read more: Bond Expert Gundlach: Housing Collapse to Spark Second Financial Meltdown

The housing meltdown hasn’t ended yet, and it could ultimately spark another financial crisis, says renowned bond fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital.

“The housing market is dropping . . . and about to go to a new low," he tells CNBC. "I think we're looking at some type of echo in the credit crisis coming up here. That's what I'm afraid of."

He notes that the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index is approaching a new trough. The index measuring prices in 20 major cities dropped 3.3 percent in February from a year earlier, the biggest decline since November 2009.

Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital photo)

At 139.27, the index has almost reached its six-year low of 139.26 set in April 2009. And Gundlach isn’t the only one worried about that development.

“There is very little, if any, good news about housing,” David Blitzer, chairman of the Case-Shiller index committee at S&P, said in a statement accompanying the latest report. “The 20-city composite is within a hair’s breadth of a double-dip.”

Another ominous sign: the ABX Index of subprime mortgage securities has slid about 20 percent in the past few months, with most of the drop coming in the last three months, Gundlach says.

In addition to falling prices, the amount of time it takes to sell a foreclosed property has ballooned to 26 months, Gundlach says. That means it will take longer to get out of the mess, he and others point out.

“Housing will continue to lag the recovery until foreclosures abate,” Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, tells Bloomberg.

The amount of non-performing mortgage loans remain huge, Gundlach says, with Bank of America, for example, holding $200 billion of bad loans. “If we start talking about recovery rates that are low on $200 billion, you start to say 'Uh-oh.'”

Foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday that sales of homes in some stage of foreclosure declined in the first three months of the year, but they still accounted for 28 percent of all home sales — a share nearly six times higher than what it would be in a healthy housing market.

Foreclosure sales, which include homes purchased after they received a notice of default or were repossessed by lenders, hit the highest share of overall sales in a year during the first quarter.

"It's an astronomically high number," Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac, told the Associated Press. "In a normal market, you're looking at the percentage of homes sold in foreclosure to be below 5 percent."

The pace at which homes are entering the foreclosure process has slowed in recent months amid bank and court delays. But distressed properties remain a fixture of a housing market still searching for a sustained recovery. The properties, often in need of repair, typically sell at a discount, weakening prices for other types of homes.

Meanwhile, housing starts fell 11 percent in April from March, and building permits slid 4 percent.

"Housing starts are a continuation of the disappointing data that clouds any U.S. recovery,” Douglas Borthwick, managing director of Faros Trading in Stamford, Ct., told Reuters.

“Fed Chairman Bernanke has often discussed the use of QE2 in stimulating housing. However, the number shows that simply is not working, nor would raising rates help. Continued weak housing data, in hand with an anemic job market, leaves the U.S. still searching for 'green shoots.'”

The Obama administration isn’t much more optimistic. It’s “going to take a long time” to fix the housing debacle, as private financing needs to take over from government-sponsored agencies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said recently at the Council of Foreign Relations, Bloomberg reports.

“We’re just at the beginning of trying to figure out how to fix that mess.”

Read more: Bond Expert Gundlach: Housing Collapse to Spark Second Financial Meltdown

27/5/11 - Global Economic Rebound Weakens on Quake, Oil Price, European Debt Crisis

Goldman Sachs economists led by Dominic Wilson and Jan Hatzius said in a May 25 report they now expect “less upside in equities” with their colleagues reducing price targets for most of the major regions even though they still anticipate another 10 percent gain in developed markets this year. Photographer: Ramin Talaie/Bloomberg 

 

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May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Willem-Mark Nabarro, head of European equities at Exane BNP Paribas, talks about the possibility of a Greek debt default and the outlook for stocks. He speaks from Singapore with Linzie Janis on Bloomberg Television's "First Look." (Source: Bloomberg) 

 

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May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Guy Lebas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy. Data today show the economy grew at a slower rate than forecast as consumer spending cooled and initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose. Lebas speaks with Mark Crumpton on Bloomberg Television's "Bottom Line." (Source: Bloomberg)

The world economy is losing strength halfway through the year as high oil prices and fallout from Japan’s natural disaster and Europe’s debt woes take their toll.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now expects global economic growth of 4.3 percent in 2011, compared with its 4.8 percent estimate in mid-April, while UBS AG has cut its projection to 3.6 percent from 3.9 percent in January. Downside risks also include a shift to tighter monetary policy in emerging markets.
“The world economy has entered a softer patch with the incoming growth data mostly disappointing,” said Andrew Cates, an economist at UBS in Singapore. “We suspect this soft patch will endure for longer.”
Data this week backed that outlook as reports showed Chinese manufacturing expanding at the slowest pace in 10 months, orders for U.S. durable goods dropping the most since October and confidence among European executive and consumers sliding for the third straight month. Investors are tuning in, pushing the MSCI World Index of stocks in advanced economies down 4.2 percent this month.

Goldman Sachs economists led by Dominic Wilson and Jan Hatzius said in a May 25 report they now expect “less upside in equities” with their colleagues reducing price targets for most of the major regions even though they still anticipate another 10 percent gain in developed markets this year.

The concern comes as leaders from the Group of Eight conclude a summit in Deauville, France, with a statement that declared the world economy is “gaining strength” and that its recovery will pave the way to debt reduction. They identified commodity prices as a “significant headwind” to expansion.
The MSCI World Index rose 0.6 percent at 6:15 a.m. in New York today, paring its weekly lose, after the G-8 statement.

Energy Costs

Oil prices reached a 31-month high of $114.83 on May 2 as the war in Libya cut supply. Goldman Sachs this week raised its forecast for Brent crude at the end of 2012 to $140 a barrel from $120, suggesting the price’s path will be 20 percent higher than anticipated at the start of the year. That’s enough to shave 0.5 percentage point from U.S. growth over two years and a little less in other wealthy nations, they said.
The fallout from Japan’s earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster may also be reverberating, said David Hensley, director of global economic coordination at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York, who calculates the international expansion will duck beneath its long-term trend this quarter.
Japan’s Consumers
Japan’s retail sales fell 4.8 percent from a year earlier in April, the Trade Ministry said in a report released today, underscoring the impact on consumers from the March disasters and forecasts for gross domestic product to shrink for a third straight quarter in the three months to June.
While spillover to Asia’s emerging economies has been “surprisingly modest,” Hensley said supply-chain disruption is “likely to rise with time” as Japanese production and exports remain depressed before beginning to recover around September.

“The global economy is losing momentum,” Hensley said.
China, after powering the global economy out of the 2009 recession, may also be slowing. The world’s No. 2 economy has raised interest rates four times since mid-October and boosted banks’ reserve-requirement ratio eight times since November, most recently on May 12.

ING Groep NV this month cut its estimate for China’s full- year growth to 9.8 percent from 10.2 percent and reduced its second-quarter forecast to an annual pace of 9.6 percent, from 10.3 percent. Credit Suisse Group AG adjusted its 2011 expansion estimate to 8.8 percent from 9.1 percent. China’s stocks this week fell by the most in eleven months.

Central Banks

“Investors are worried that the tightening is overdone and concerns have widened to a slowdown in earnings and economic growth from just inflation,” said Wang Zheng, chief investment officer at Jingxi Investment Management Co. in Shanghai, which manages about $120 million.
Emerging-market central banks elsewhere are also throttling back. Those in India, the Philippines, Chile, Poland, Peru and Malaysia all raised their benchmark borrowing costs this month to cool price pressures.
Europe’s 18-month debt crisis is another brake on growth as its policy makers prepare a second aid package to save Greece from default and other so-called peripheral economies deploy austerity measures to slash debt. At the same time, the euro’s 6 percent gain against the dollar since the start of the year and the European Central Bank’s shift toward tighter monetary policy may be slowing expansion elsewhere in the region.

Impact on Companies

The global economy’s change in tone is reflected in some company announcements. Chicago-based Boeing Co. (BA), the world’s largest aerospace company, said it received two orders last month compared with 98 in March. Hermes International SCA, the Paris-based maker of Birkin handbags, said on May 11 that its forecast for 2011 is “clouded by geopolitical and economic uncertainties.”

The slower growth may still be short-lived and by cooling the oil price could even provide some support for consumers and inflation relief for central bankers, allowing them to keep monetary policy looser for longer. Other reasons for confidence include job growth in the U.S., expectations for an infrastructure-led bounce in Japan’s economy, supportive equity markets and a likely recovery in inventory accumulation, said Hensley at JPMorgan Chase.

Economists Nariman Behravesh and Sara Johnson of IHS Inc. said in a May 24 report that while they expect worldwide growth to slow to 3.5 percent this year from 4.1 percent in 2010, it will rebound to 4 percent in each of the next two years as the pain of austerity, Japan’s woes and high oil prices passes.
“Assuming these shocks do not get any worse and that the world economy is not hit by additional unforeseen jolts, chances are good that the period of slow growth will be relatively short and that the recovery will pick up steam again,” they said.

24/5/11 - Europe debt crisis poses threat to US recovery, says Federal Reserve's James Bullard

The intensification of Europe's debt crisis poses a renewed threat to the US economic recovery, a senior official from the Federal Reserve has warned.

The turmoil in financial markets leading up to Greece's bail-out last May is considered to have contributed to a sharp slowing in US growth Photo: AP

By Richard Blackden, US Business Editor 4:19PM BST 24 May 2011

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Greece, which proved the trigger point for the beginning of Europe's debt turmoil a year ago, is again at the centre of divisions on the continent over how to cut the country's debt burden.

With the ratio of Greece's debt to gross domestic product still rising, and the government struggling to deliver on reforms, some European finance ministers have signalled that the economy's debt may need restructuring. The European Central Bank, however, has warned that such a move - which could involve the maturity of some Greek debt being extended - would stop it accepting the bonds as collateral for loans to Greek's banks. Christian Noyer, a top official at the ECB, said on Tuesday that "a restruturing is a horror scenario".

For policy makers on this side of the Atlantic, renewed evidence of stress in Europe will conjure up memories of 12 months ago. The turmoil in financial markets leading up to Greece's bail-out from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund last May is considered by some to have contributed to a sharp slowing in US growth in the second quarter of 2010.

"I am concerned about the situation in Europe," James Bullard, the president of the regional branch of the Fed in St Louis, said after a speech in Missouri on Monday night. "Prolonged financial market turmoil could be a negative for the US."

The strains within Europe come at a delicate moment for the US, where most economists still expect a gradual recovery in the jobs market to help offset the financial squeeze many Americans face from higher food and petrol prices.

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Mr Bullard, who is not voting on the Fed's interest rate setting committee this year, said that the Fed should abandon a policy of looking at inflation that excludes food and energy prices. "Headline inflation is the ultimate objective of monetary policy with respect to prices," Mr Bullard said.
He added that he expects US growth to pick up from the first quarter, when it slowed to an annual pace of just 1.8pc.

19/5/11 - World Bank: A new world order emerging

May 19, 2011
MANILA:  Emerging economies in the Asia Pacific region would continue to post growth rates that would exceed those of the developed countries, making it possible for the world’s total production being equally divided among the rich and the emerging markets by 2025.

It was among the highlights of the latest report of the World Bank, entitled “Global Development Horizons 2011–Multi-polarity: The New Global Economy”, reports Yonhap news agency Thursday.

The report forecasted that emerging economies could grow by an average of 4.7 percent this year until 2025, while the industrialised nations are only projected to expand by an average of 2.3 percent. Because of this, the developing economies will eventually catch up with the rich nations in terms of contributions to global output, the report added.

“One of the most visible outcomes of this transformation is the rise of a number of dynamic emerging market countries to the helm of the global economy,” the World Bank said.
The World Bank noted that emerging markets now account for two- thirds of the world’s foreign exchange reserves–a reversal of the picture of the previous decade when industrialized countries owned the bulk of the reserves.

China has the biggest share of the global reserves among emerging markets at US$3 trillion.
“In short, a new world order with a more diffused distribution of economic power is emerging–thus the shift toward multi- polarity,” the World Bank report.

The rising role of emerging markets would eventually diminish the primacy of the US dollar in international trade and finance. Eventually, countries would keep almost equal shares of the US dollar, the euro and the renminbi in their foreign exchange reserves, the bank added.

“Over the next decade or so, China’s size and the rapid globalization of its corporations and banks will likely mean a more important role for the renminbi. The most likely global currency scenario in 2025 will be a multi-currency systm centered around the dollar, the euro, and the renminbi,” the report said.
After the worst global financial crisis, which peaked in 2009, industrialised nations like the United States and those in Europe have posted only moderate growths, some of them cannot even be sustained, according to some economic analysts.

The United States is battling with its growing debt. Some members of the European Union are also trying to cope with their debt woes.

On the other hand, emerging economies grew significantly last year and are expected this year to again outperform rich countries in terms of growth rates.
The report highlights the diversity of potential emerging economy growth poles, some of which have relied heavily on exports, such as China and South Korea, and others that put more weight on domestic consumption, such as Brazil and Mexico.

With the emergence of a substantial middle class in developing countries and demographic transitions underway in several major East Asian economies, stronger consumption trends are likely to prevail, which in turn can serve as a source of sustained global growth.

“In many big emerging economies, the growing role of domestic demand is already apparent and outsourcing is already under way.

This is important for the least developed countries, which are often reliant on foreign investors and external demand for their growth,” the bank said.

The Philippine government earlier said that the economy grew by 7.3 percent last year. But President Benigno Aquino III said last Wednesday that after all the data have been gathered by the Department of Finance, the country’s economy actually grew by 7.6 percent in 2010.

16/5/11 - World on course for next crisis, warns Gordon Brown

The global economy is heading towards another meltdown despite the lessons of the last financial crisis, Gordon Brown has warned.

Mr Brown said the "resolve" to act seen immediately after the crisis has been replaced by indecision and vested interest. Photo: PA

By Emma Rowley 6:51PM BST 16 May 2011

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The former prime minister said that unless leaders take more action, the recent credit crunch could prove just the "trailer" to a string of crises.

"In 2008, when we were hours away from ATMs running out of money, small businesses being unable to pay their staffs, and schools and hospitals closing down through lack of cash flow, it felt as if the crisis of the century was upon us," he wrote in US magazine Newsweek.

"But if the world continues on its current path, the historians of the future will say that the great financial collapse of three years ago was simply the trailer for a succession of avoidable crises that eroded popular consent for globalisation itself.

"Those who believe that the world has learned from the mistakes that led to the crash are mistaken."

Mr Brown said the "resolve" to act seen immediately after the crisis has been replaced by indecision and vested interest. He urged politicians at the next G20 summit, which takes place in Cannes in November, to take control of a globalised financial system which is still "perilously" unregulated.

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Mr Brown's comments come amid repeated warnings by European policy-makers that the debt crisis surrounding the eurozone's weaker nations could have a worse systemic effect on global markets than the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers in 2008, which precipitated the last crisis.
They fear "with good cause" that if Greece has to restructure its debt - effectively default - it could unravel a chain of trades based on the problematic debt and lay bare the interconnectedness of institutions around the world, said Stephen Lewis, an analyst at Monument Securities.

14/5/11 - Crisis after Crisis = COLLAPSE

Saturday, 14 May 2011 12:01

Charlie McGrath
Wide Awake News
May 13th, 2011

www.theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/The…
www.zerohedge.com/article/centrist-think-tank-conducts-study-finds-us-…

13/5/11 - World to Suffer a New Currency Crisis by Fall

Posted by Economic Analyst at Tuesday, May 10, 2011

China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales

Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June 

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard 9:11AM BST 08 Aug 2007

Comment

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.

• Blog - Dollar to collapse?

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.

Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.
The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
"The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
Henry Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation".
Mr Paulson is a China expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the waters.

10/5/11 - U.S. ‘Underwater’ Homeowners Increase to 28 Percent

By John Gittelsohn - May 10, 2011 5:49 AM GMT+0930

Rows of houses stand in Las Vegas in an aerial photo taken on Sept. 22, 2009. Homeowners with negative equity increased to 28 percent nationwide from 22 percent a year earlier, according to Zillow Inc. Photographer: Jacob Kepler/Bloomberg 

More than 28 percent of U.S. homeowners with mortgages owed more than their properties were worth in the first quarter as values fell the most since 2008, Zillow Inc. said today.

Homeowners with negative equity increased from 22 percent a year earlier as home prices slumped 8.2 percent over the past 12 months, the Seattle-based company said. About 27 percent of homes with mortgages were “underwater” in the fourth quarter, according to Zillow, which runs a website with property-value estimates and real-estate listings.

Home prices fell 3 percent in the first quarter and will drop as much as 9 percent this year as foreclosures spread and unemployment remains high, Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said. Prices won’t find a floor until 2012, he said.

“We get tired of telling such a grim story, but unfortunately this is the story that needs to be told,” Humphries said in a telephone interview. “Demand is still quite anemic due to unemployment and the fact that home values are still falling. And that tends to make people more cautious about buying.”
The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 9 percent in April, up from 8.8 percent in March, the Department of Labor reported May 6. Home prices have fallen almost 30 percent from their June 2006 peak, wiping out more than $10 trillion in equity, including $667.5 billion in the first quarter, Humphries said.

Dropping Home Values

Other analysts also expect homes to continue losing value this year. Oliver Chang of Morgan Stanley expects prices to fall as much as 11 percent, according to an April 25 report. Prices may fall “another 5 or 10 percent,” Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University, told Fox Business on April 26. Home prices were 33 percent below the July 2006 peak in February, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Composite 20-City Home Price Index, co-created by Shiller.

Prices will continue falling as more houses are lost to foreclosure, flooding the market with distressed properties, Humphries said.

Foreclosures fell to the lowest level in three years in the first quarter as lenders worked through a backlog of flawed paperwork, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California- based real estate information service. Foreclosure filings are likely to jump 20 percent this year, reaching a peak for the housing crisis, RealtyTrac predicted in January.

The number of homes with negative equity rose to 16.2 million in the first quarter from 13.1 million a year earlier, Zillow said.
Las Vegas Highest

In Las Vegas, 85 percent of homes with mortgages were underwater, the most of any city tracked by Zillow. Other metropolitan areas in the top five were Reno, Nevada, at 73 percent; Phoenix at 68 percent; and Modesto, California, and Tampa, Florida, both at 60 percent. Zillow has tracked negative equity since the first quarter of 2009, when more than 22 percent of homes were underwater.

Property values rose in only three of the 132 regions tracked by Zillow: Fort Myers, Florida, where they gained 2.4 percent; Champaign-Urbana, Illinois, up 0.8 percent; and Honolulu, up 0.3 percent. Fort Myers prices increased after falling more than 60 percent from their 2006 peak because they “over-corrected,” Humphries said.

The first quarter’s U.S. home price decline was the steepest since the fourth quarter of 2008, when prices fell 3.9 percent, according to Zillow data. Values dropped almost 13 percent over the course of that year.
“It’s not going to be as bad as 2008,” Humphries said. “But it’s going to be worse than we thought it was going to be.”

‘Stealing Demand’

Prices were propped up in 2009 and early 2010 by federal stimulus programs, such as tax credits worth up to $8,000 for first-time homebuyers, Humphries said. That program “was stealing demand from the future,” weakening shoppers’ appetites now even as housing affordability is at its three-decade high, he said.
“In the past, people felt more bullish in a post-recession recovery,” he said. “They’d go out and spend more on homes and that would ignite hiring in construction and the mortgage industry. And they’d start to get the flywheel moving more quickly. Unfortunately, now, that flywheel is broken.”

5/5/11 - What Is The Best Place To Live In The United States To Prepare For The Coming Economic Collapse?

Posted on Pakalert on May 3, 2011 // 2 Comments

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The Economic Collapse

What is the best place to live in the United States?  I get asked that question all the time.  My answer can be summed up in two words: it depends.  The truth is that the answer is going to be different for each person.  All of us have different goals and different needs.  If you have a very strong network of family and friends where you live right now, you might want to think twice before moving hundreds or thousands of miles away.  If you have a great job where you live right now, you might want to hold on to it.  You should not just assume that you are going to be able to pick up and move to another part of the country and be able to get a similar job right away.  The United States is in the midst of a very serious economic decline right now, and wherever you live you are going to have to provide for your family.  Just because you move somewhere new does not mean that you are going to leave your problems behind.  In fact, you might find that they moved right along with you.  With all that being said, the reality is that there are some places in the U.S. that are going to be much more desirable than others when the economy totally falls apart.  For example, during a total economic collapse it will not be good to be living in a large city or in a densely populated area.  Just think about what happened in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.  If the entire nation is going through something like that, you don’t want to have hundreds of thousands of close neighbors at that point.  So when thinking about where you want to be when everything falls apart, population density should be a major factor.  But there are other factors as well and no area of the United States is perfect.

If you live in or near a major city right now, that is okay.  Most Americans do.  Even if you have limited financial resources at the moment, you can start developing a plan that will get you where you eventually want to go.  If you want to move to another part of the country you can start applying for jobs out there.  You can also be working hard to develop a business that would enable you to move.  Perhaps you have friends or family in more isolated areas that would allow you to stay with them during an economic collapse.

Those that possess more financial resources could start thinking about getting a second home in a location that is more rural.

The key is to come up with a plan and to be working towards accomplishing that plan.

If you don’t have a plan yet, hopefully the following information will give you something to think about.  Not all areas of the United States are equal, and all of them do have problems.

The following are some thoughts about the best place to live in the United States….

The Northeast

A major problem with the Northeast is that it is just so darn crowded.  Yes, there are some rural areas, but the overall population density of the region is so high that it would be really hard to go unnoticed for long in the event of a major economic collapse.

Another thing that is not great about the Northeast is that so much of the population lives near the coast.  As we saw in Japan recently, living near a coastline is not necessarily a good thing.  While it is likely safer to live along the east coast then the west coast, the truth is that there is an inherent level of insecurity when it comes to living in coastal areas.  You never know when the next hurricane, oil spill or tsunami is going to strike.

Also, the Northeast is really quite cold.  So staying warm and growing your own food would be more difficult than in some other areas of the country.

The Mid-Atlantic

The Mid-Atlantic is one of the most beautiful areas of the nation.  Unfortunately, it suffers from many of the same problems that the Northeast does.

The Mid-Atlantic has a very high population density.  For example, the area around Washington D.C. is pretty much all suburbs for 50 miles in all directions.

The weather is nicer than in the Northeast and there are some less dense areas once you get south of Washington D.C.

If you think that the Mid-Atlantic might be for you, you might want to check out North Carolina or South Carolina.  The people tend to get friendlier the further south you go and there are definitely some areas that could potentially work.

Florida

Florida is generally not going to be a place that you want to be during an economic collapse.  The housing market has absolutely collapsed down there and the crime rate is already very high.  It is also very densely populated.

The weather is very nice down in Florida, but one big thing that you need to consider when it comes to Florida is the fact that it is very flat and most of Florida is just barely above sea level.  In fact, quite a bit of Florida is actuallybelow sea level.

In addition, hurricanes are always a major threat in Florida.  It is a beautiful state, but there is a lot of risk to living down there.

The Southeast

The Southeast has really taken a pounding over the last few years.  First it was Hurricane Katrina, and then it was the BP oil spill and then it was the tornadoes of 2011.

There is a lot of poverty in that area of the country.  There is also a lot of crime.

There are a lot of great people who live down in the Southeast, but if you do not know your way around it can be a very difficult place to move to.

The Mid-South

One of my favorite places east of the Mississippi River are the mountains along the Tennessee/North Carolina border.  If you must be in the eastern half of the United States, that is not a bad choice.

Where you do not want to be is anywhere near the New Madrid fault zone.  The New Madrid fault zone covers portions of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and Mississippi.  The biggest earthquakes in the history of the United States were caused by the New Madrid fault. Many are convinced that we are going to see an absolutely catastrophic earthquake along the New Madrid fault at some point.

So if you want to live in the Mid-South, it is highly recommended that you stay far away from the New Madrid fault zone.

The Upper Midwest

The Upper Midwest was once one of the great manufacturing regions of the world, but now much of it is known as the “rust belt”.

Formerly great manufacturing cities such as Detroit are now absolutehellholes.  Tens of thousands of our factories and millions of our jobs have been shipped overseas.

There are some really great people (including some good friends of this column) that live up there, but the truth is that the region is really cold and unemployment is rampant.

The Upper Midwest is an area that people want to get out of.  It is probably not a great place to move to.

However, if you do need a job, one place to look is a little bit west of there.  Thanks to an abundance of natural resources, unemployment in North Dakota and South Dakota is very low.  If you really need a job you might want to look into those two states.

The Southwest

In the Southwest there are a whole lot of freedom-loving Americans, the weather is very warm and there is a lot of space to get lost.

However, the Southwest is also very dry and in many areas there is not a lot of water.  Drought and wildfires are quite common.

In addition, illegal immigration is rampant and is a constant security threat.

If you are familiar with that area of the country it is not a bad choice, but if you do not know what you are doing it could end up being disastrous for you.

The Great Plains

As long as you are far enough away from the New Madrid fault, the Great Plains is not a bad choice.

It is very, very flat out there, and it can be quite windy, but the good news is that you should be able to grow your own food.

In addition, the population density is generally very low in most areas.

One big negative, as we have seen recently, is tornadoes.  The United States experiences more tornadoes that anywhere else in the world, and “tornado alley” generally gets the worst of it.

The West Coast

During an economic collapse, the West Coast is not a place that you will really want to be.  Just take a look at the state of California already.  It is aneconomic nightmare.

Millions of people have left California over the past couple of decades.  The millions of people that have left have been replaced mostly with illegal aliens.

Oregon is better, although they have very high taxes and they are experiencing huge economic problems right now as well.

The best area along the West Coast is the Seattle area, but you won’t want to be anywhere near a major population center when things totally fall apart.

Also, the West Coast lies along the “Ring of Fire“.  Considering what just happened in Japan and what has been happening in other areas along the Ring of Fire lately, the West Coast is not an area that a lot of people are recommending.

The Northwest

Large numbers of freedom-loving Americans have been moving to the states of Montana, Idaho and Wyoming.  You can also throw eastern Washington and eastern Oregon into this category as well.

It gets cold up in the Northwest, but not as cold as the Upper Midwest.  There are lots of rivers, streams and lakes and in certain areas there is plenty of rain.

The population density is very low in most areas and there is an abundance of wildlife.  Housing prices are reasonable and in many areas you can grow your own food.

The Northwest is one of the favorite areas of the United States for preppers.  It is far from perfect, but it does have a lot of advantages.

Alaska And Hawaii

Neither Alaska or Hawaii is recommended.  Alaska lies along the “Ring of Fire” and it is very, very cold.  Also, almost everything has to be either shipped or flown into Alaska.  In the event of a real economic collapse, supplies to Alaska could be cut off and shortages could develop very quickly.

Hawaii has a huge population and it does not have a lot of room.  Like Alaska, most supplies have to be either shipped in or flown in.  And one really bad tsunami could pretty much wipe Hawaii out.

But once again, there is no “right answer”.  There are areas of just about every U.S. state that could potentially work well during a major economic collapse.

When assessing where “the best place to live in the United States” is, it is important to examine your own personal factors.  What will work for me and for my family will not necessarily work for you and your family.

So what do all of you think about this list?  Which area of the country do you think is best for those Americans who are seeking to prepare themselves for the coming economic collapse?

3/5/11 - America appears to be sleepwalking towards disaster – does no one care?

America appears to be sleepwalking towards disaster – does no one care?

So let me get this straight. The Standard and Poor's rating agency last week took the historic step of putting the US government's AAA credit rating on "negative watch".

America appears to be sleepwalking towards disaster ? does no one care? 

By Liam Halligan, Economic Agenda 7:21PM BST 23 Apr 2011

331 Comments

There is now, according to S&P, "at least a one in three chance" that American debt will be downgraded from its top-notch status over the next two years – which would be a first in modern times.

A New York Times/CBS News opinion poll has also suggested the US public is now more economically pessimistic than at any time since President Barack Obama's first two months in office in early 2009 – when the country was still caught in the "Great Recession".

Amid renewed talk of a "jobless recovery", the number of Americans who think the economy has deteriorated spiked by 13 percentage points over the past month. Congress, meanwhile, is locked in a bitter dispute over the federal government's ability to make ends meet.

These are the stark realities facing the world's largest economy. They are set, furthermore, against Europe's sovereign debt turmoil, Japan's nuclear crisis and ongoing violence in the Middle East.

Yet despite all this bad news, this veritable litany of woe, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended last week at a three-year high. US equities are now at levels not seen since mid-2008 – before the credit crunch really took hold. On top of that, despite S&P's announcement, the price of Treasuries kept rising, as their yield – the cost the US government must pay to borrow – fell to its lowest level in a month. Has the world gone mad?

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With a federal deficit close to 10pc of GDP, it is clear the US needs some very significant fiscal tightening. Total debts matter even more than annual deficits and on that score America is almost uniquely "in the hole" – with liabilities, including Medicare, Medicaid and social security obligations, amounting to around $75,000bn (£45,000bn), or a stunning five times annual GDP.

It is a testament to the delusion – and plain dishonesty – which surrounds America's fiscal debate that this figure is not more widely cited. Almost all US politicians and pundits spout the official line that sovereign debts are 59pc of national income, rather than 500pc. But, then again, their

UK equivalents maintain that our national debt is 76pc of GDP – again, a fraction of the genuine total.
Earlier this month, Republican Congressman Paul Ryan published a fiscal consolidation strategy document which demonstrated, rather cogently, that the US simply cannot afford its ongoing "entitlement program". Among the very first attempts by a Capitol Hill insider seriously to address America's staggering debts, the Ryan plan is one reason why fiscal consolidation is now set to become the core issue of the 2012 Presidential election campaign.

Another reason is this latest move by S&P. The ratings agency's move was clearly a big moment – but a political moment, having little to do with finance. S&P didn't tell the markets anything they didn't already know about America's fiscal position. US Treasuries are, by a considerable margin, the world's most
closely-watched asset class.

Markets reacted the way they did, though, due to the widely-adopted assumption that the danger of a genuine downgrade will galvanise America's deeply partisan law-makers into action, provoking the requisite banging of political heads. So some kind of deal on budget consolidation now, apparently, looks one step nearer – supposedly making Treasuries more attractive.

Equities rallied, meanwhile, in part because of relatively strong earnings chalked up by the likes of Apple and General Electric. But there was also a feeling that if fiscal consolidation really is now in the works, the US Federal Reserve is more likely to go easy on the monetary side – further delaying the moment when it finally raises interest rates above 0.25pc, the level at which they've languished since December 2008.
Many have commented that the most remarkable aspect of S&P's announcement is that it didn't come earlier. After all, America's public finances have been spiralling out of control for several years. Even more remarkable, though, at least to my mind, was the extent to which S&P's move appeared to be choreographed between the ratings agency – supposedly an ultra-independent body – and the US government.
This crucial announcement was made on Monday April 18. Congress was away for Easter recess, with members scattered across America and beyond. As a result, there were no protesting speeches in the Senate or House of Representatives and no resulting press conferences. The date that S&P picked, however it picked it, was very kind to the White House.

The S&P report itself was also extremely benign. There was no mention that the Obama administration has increased federal spending by more than 30pc in two years, while almost allowing the government to "shut down" by not agreeing to minuscule spending cuts.

In addition, Tim Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, appeared to know about the announcement in advance. Last Sunday, the day before publication, he made himself very available to the broadcast media, touring the TV studies to give multiple interviews on the bold steps being taken by the Obama administration to "tackle the deficit". This allowed the government to, as spin doctors say, "get ahead of the news".

Once the announcement was made, Geithner merely shrugged it off. His official response was that there is "no chance" of S&P's negative outlook turning into an actual downgrade. The rational reaction to such a statement is that "there was no chance of the Titanic sinking either". The more realistic response, perhaps, is to realise that there really is "no chance" of a major US ratings agency gainsaying the White House any time soon.
One reason is that said agencies could yet be fingered by the authorities as the major culprits in the "sub-prime crisis" – and until that danger has passed, they'll do as they're told. The government could, after all, regulate them into non-existence. As the celebrated American comedian Lily Tomlin once uttered: "No matter how cynical you become, it's never enough to keep up."

While the Ryan plan and S&P's announcement means America's fiscal debate is now centre stage, investors should remember that neither event guarantees anything remotely resembling meaningful fiscal retrenchment. And, again, I'm afraid S&P's missive presents it as an apologist for, rather than a critic of, US fiscal largesse.
"The US dollar is the world's most used currency, providing America with unique external flexibility," the report purrs. "Recent depreciation of the currency has not materially affected this position, and we do not expect this to change in the medium term."

This looks suspiciously to me like a ratings agency providing almost an endorsement of quantitative easing – the Fed's $2,300bn programme of "virtual" money printing. I may be wrong, and Lily Tomlin too, but with QE set to end in June, and Fed boss Ben Bernanke hosting a historic press conference this coming week, part of a new regime of "transparency", the US government is desperate for reasons to justify why the printing presses can be kept running up to the Presidential election and beyond.

There's been a lot of talk that S&P's bold move last week was a harbinger of renewed fiscal discipline, not just in the US, but across the Western world. The ratings agency, we're told, "is doing its job" and "holding politicians to account". I would like to think that's true, but I just don't. The gold market doesn't either. The yellow metal, the ultimate hedge against inflation and dollar debasement, hit yet another all-time high last week.

3.5.11 - America's reckless money-printing could put the world back into crisis

Last week, Ben Bernanke suggested that the US base interest rate will stay close to zero for an "extended period". It's been there since December 2008.

The US currency has also been falling pretty steadily since the summer of 2010, after Ben Bernanke gave the first inklings he would launch QE2. Photo: AP

By Liam Halligan 5:15PM BST 30 Apr 2011

205 Comments

Traders took these words to mean that the Federal Reserve won't hike rates until the first few months of 2012 at the earliest.

Bernanke also pledged to do whatever is required to keep America's economic recovery on track – confirming that the second programme of "quantitative easing", or QE2, would be completed. These two related announcements – the "reprieve" and the "sugar rush" – sent Wall Street into renewed spasms of synthetic joy.

In the real world, US growth is slowing sharply. Annualised GDP rose just 1.8pc during the first three months of 2011, down from 3.1pc the quarter before. America remains mired in sovereign, commercial and household debt.

Yet as the Fed chairman spoke, US stocks hit their highest level since before the sub-prime crisis. The tech-heavy Nasdaq, incredibly, closed at a 10-year peak.

So the Fed will keep on "printing" virtual money – at least for now. By the end of June, it will have purchased $600bn (£363bn) of longer-term Treasuries, with the US government effectively buying its own debt from funds created ex nihilo. That's on top of the original $1,750bn (£1,048bn) QE scheme, launched in late 2008.

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America's base money supply – the bedrock of the world's reserve currency – has doubled in little more than two years. Despite consternation among many US voters, and dismay – rapidly turning to anger – across the world, most of America's political elite refuse even to debate QE. Such is the state of democracy in the "land of the free and the home of the brave". And America is not alone.

Bernanke's utterances caused gold to jump another 2pc. Silver – known as "poor man's gold", another "inflation hedge" – spiked 6.5pc. But the real story was the plunging dollar. Against a basket of five major global currencies, the US currency fell sharply and is now at its weakest since July 2008. The Fed's "real broad dollar index", a 26-currency composite and adjusted for inflation, is testing levels not seen since 1979.
Yet still Tim Geithner puffed-out his chest and reaffirmed America's "strong dollar" commitment. "Our policy has been, and will always be, as long as I'm in this job, that a strong dollar is in America's interest," the US treasury secretary said.

That's total nonsense, of course – seeing as a weaker currency boosts US exports and lowers the value of America's external debt. Geithner's words are not only disingenuous, but insulting to America's creditors and trading partners. In fact, Washington's constant berating of Beijing for "currency manipulation" is looking more and more like a diversion tactic.

That's a big statement, I know. But it's based on a dispassionate analysis of the facts. I have no personal beef with America. I've spent a sizeable chunk of my life in America and much of my family is American. I love America! I feel the need to write this as quite a few US economists, even those boasting Nobel prizes, have recently accused analysts who don't toe the "Washington line" of being "America-haters".

Such ad hominem tactics are pathetic – the last refuge of intellectual cowards who know they're losing the argument. For the "Washington line" – inflation isn't a problem, we don't need to raise rates and the Fed can print willy-nilly – is not only looking increasingly untenable, but is having a severe negative impact on much of the rest of the world.
The way the Obama administration is running America's economy – continued fiscal expansionism, QE2 and "dollar benign neglect" – is not only damaging US relationships abroad, but will ultimately lead to greater pain for domestic voters too. I say this not because I hate America but because, as a citizen of the world, I care about the fate of the largest economy on earth.

This latest dollar weakness is part of a longer-term trend. From the start of 2002 until the middle of 2008, the greenback lost 30pc on a trade-weighted basis. The start of the "sub-prime" crisis proper then sent shock waves around the world. For six months or so, Western investors piled into what they knew, liquidating complex positions and buying "Uncle Sam". The dollar surged, spiralling upward during the so-called "safe haven rally".

Then the Fed began QE, apparently to tackle "deflation". The more pressing need was to bail out Wall Street and rein in the real value of America's burgeoning government debt – which happened as the dollar then fell. The US currency has also been falling pretty steadily since the summer of 2010, after Bernanke gave the first inklings he would launch QE2.

America's currency weakness is based on fundamentals including its vast, and upward-spiralling, $14,000bn debt – and that's just what's "on the books". Nothing material is being done to address this massive problem. The unspoken assumption among politicians on both sides of the aisle is that America can just "monetise" its liabilities by continuing to debase the currency.

So the Fed's actions are undermining the dollar precisely because that's what the White House wants. At the same time, sophisticated investors are exploiting ultra-low US rates by borrowing cheaply in dollars and switching the proceeds to currencies where returns are higher. This "carry trade" is flooding foreign exchange markets with US currency – weakening the dollar further.

Yet "dollar benign neglect" is fraught with economic risks. A weak dollar makes commodities more expensive. It was when the greenback hit it's last trough of $1.60 against the euro in mid-2008 that oil soared to $147 a barrel. Expensive crude damages the world's biggest oil user. And as the dollar falls, America's huge commodity imports cost more, making the trade deficit even worse.

America's currency depreciation trick could also backfire badly if "the rope slips" and, far from a steady decline, the world's pivotal currency goes into free fall. That would plunge America back into recession, or worse – as inflation ballooned amid soaring import costs, forcing the Fed to raise rates in the teeth of shuddering slowdown.

A plummeting US currency would also spark broader chaos as central banks sought to protect the value of their reserves. And after the inevitable downward overshoot, the dollar would snap back, causing the carry trade to "unwind" as dollar borrowers suddenly owed more. The danger then would be that major losses at financial institutions posed renewed systemic threats. Financial markets might then go into a tailspin, reigniting concerns of a fully-blown global slump.

Bernanke's comments last week were made to the press – with the Fed now agreeing to regularly scheduled news conferences for the first time in its 98-year history. Some say this decision to submit to demands for transparency indicates that the power of the US central bank, it's global influence, is on the wane.
I'd suggest that, on the contrary, the Fed's global impact may soon reach an all-time high. And that impact won't be pretty. For far from being a "safe haven", an increasingly debased dollar could be the cause of the next global financial crisis.

Reading between the lines of Bernanke's statement, I don't think that last week's Fed missive, as most concluded, confirmed the end of QE2. In my view – and I write this with a sense of trepidation – the Fed's inaugural "meet the press" moment was in fact preparing the ground for the start of QE3.