18/9/11 - Is China Ready To Pull The Plug?

There are two mainstream market assumptions that, in my mind, prevail over all others. The continuing function of the Dow, the sustained flow of capital into and out of the banking sector, and the full force spending of the federal government are ALL entirely dependent on the lifespan of these dual illusions; one, that the U.S. Dollar is a legitimate safe haven investment and will remain so indefinitely, and two, that China, like many other developing nations, will continue to prop up the strength of the dollar indefinitely because it is “in their best interest”. In the dimly lit bowels of Wall Street such ideas are so entrenched and pervasive, to question their validity is almost sacrilegious. Only after the recent S&P downgrade of America’s AAA credit rating did the impossible become thinkable to some MSM analysts, though a considerable portion of the day-trading herd continue to roll onward, while the time bomb strapped to the ass end of their financial house is ticking away.

The debate over the health and longevity of the dollar comes down to one very simple and undeniable root pillar of economics; supply and demand. The supply of dollars throughout the financial systems of numerous countries is undoubtedly overwhelming. In fact, the private Federal Reserve has been quite careful in maintaining a veil of secrecy over the full extent of dollar saturation in foreign markets in order to hide the sheer volume of greenback devaluation and inflation they have created. If for some reason the reserves of dollars held overseas by investors and creditors were to come flooding back into the U.S., we would see a hyperinflationary spiral more destructive than any in recorded history. As the supply of dollars around the globe increases exponentially, so too must foreign demand, otherwise, the debt machine short-circuits, and newly impoverished Americans will be using Ben Franklins for sod in their adobe huts. As I will show, demand for dollars is not increasing to match supply, but is indeed stalled, ready to crumble.

China, being the second largest holder of U.S. debt next to the Fed, and the number one holder of dollars within their forex reserves, has always been the key to gauging the progression of the global economic collapse now in progress. If you want to know what’s going to happen tomorrow, watch what China does today.

Back in 2005, China began a low profile program to issue government debt denominated in the Yuan, called Yuan bonds, or “Panda Bonds”. This move was almost entirely ignored by establishment economists. They should have realized then that China was moving to strengthen the Yuan, expand its use in other markets, and recondition their economic structure away from export dependency and towards consumerism (as they have done with the establishment of the ASEAN trading bloc). Of course, in the MSM at that time, there was no derivatives bubble, no credit crisis, no debt implosion. America was on cloud nine. China, through inside knowledge, or perhaps a crystal ball, knew exactly what was about to happen, and insulated itself accordingly by generating distance between its system and the soon to derail retail based society of the U.S. This dynamic has not changed since the 2008 bubble burst, and Chinese activity is still the ultimate litmus test for economic volatility.

Today, there is widespread confusion in markets over the direction of America’s financial future.In the wake of the credit downgrade, most investors unaware of the bigger picture are desperately clinging to any and every piece of news no matter how trivial, every rumor from the Fed, and every announcement from the government no matter how empty. China’s economic news feeds have been tightly regulated and filtered, even more so than usual (which is cause for concern, in my opinion), while distractions in Europe abound. Let’s take a step by step journey through these issues, and see if we can’t produce some clarity…

U.S. versus EU: A Game Of Hot Potato…To The Death?

The theatrical seesaw between the U.S. and Europe is not only becoming obvious to the most narrow of economic analysts, it is also becoming kind of boring. The entire ordeal has been subversively exploited as a false example of systemic “contagion”, and with purpose; global banks need to convince average Americans and average Europeans that destabilization in one portion of the world will automatically lead to destabilization everywhere. This concept is true only so far as forced globalization and centralization have made it true. That said, the charade has been somewhat effective in conditioning the populace with ideas of collectivist survival. In other words, we are being trained to take fiscal responsibility for countries outside of our sovereign national boundaries as if we are morally tied to every penny they have or do not have (global socialism/feudalism - here we come!). This process is culminating in worldwide harmonization through fear as well as guilt.

What we are witnessing is NOT contagion. Instead, we are seeing multiple and mostly separate collapses activated simultaneously. Each nation suffering dire straights in Europe is doing so because of its own particular financial problems, not the problems of other countries nearby, and certainly not those of countries on the other side of the world. Contagion arguments are only applicable to those economies overly dependent on exports, yet, China has already shown (at least in the case of the U.S.) that such dangers can be controlled by minimizing exposure to the poisoned portions of the system and reverting to more internalized wealth creation.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and the heads of World Bank and IMF have perpetuated the lie of contagion between the U.S. and the EU primarily to service the progress of globalization, but also to hide the inflationary effects of dollar devaluation. While the greatest threats are stacked squarely against America’s economy and the dollar, somehow we have been led to focus on the comparatively less explosive drama in the EU. U.S. dollars, as well as Chinese funds, are flooding into Europe to support the region, while investment in the U.S. and its debt weakens and disappears. In the meantime, a weaker Euro makes the dollar look more attractive (at least on paper), but in reality, both currencies are on the path to bloody hari-kari.

How much longer can this game of hot potato go on? Again, China decides. Eventually, China is going to have to choose which currency to support; the dollar or the euro. Supporting both is simply not an option, especially when the chance of collapse in both currencies is so high. So far, the most logical path has been the euro. While the EU may suffer an astonishing breakdown, we must take into account that our own Treasury and central bank have seen fit to throw trillions of dollars into propping up Europe (with even more on the way):

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/15/us-eurozone-idUSTRE78B24R20110915

With so much inflation and devaluation being thrust upon the dollar in the name of saving the EU, China’s move towards a stronger economic relationship with Europe at the expense of the U.S. is a no-brainer:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-14/china-willing-to-buy-bonds-from-sovereign-debt-crisis-nations-zhang-says.html

If I were to place a bet on who would come out of the crisis less damaged, my money would be on the EU, everyone else’s money certainly seems to be…

China Discreetly Moving To Dump U.S. Debt

China has been tip-toeing towards this for years, and has openly admitted on numerous occasions that they plan to institute a break from U.S. debt and the dollar in due course. Anyone who continues to argue that a Chinese decoupling from America’s economy is impossible at this point is truly beyond hope. Though increasingly more rare, news on China’s push to drop the U.S. still leaks out. Recently, a top advisor to China’s central bank let slip that a plan is in place to begin “liquidating” (yes, they said liquidate) their U.S. Treasury bonds as soon as possible, and reposition national investments into more physical assets:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100011987/china-to-liquidate-us-treasuries-not-dollars/

But let’s step back for a moment and pretend China hasn’t told us exactly what it is going to do time and time again. Instead, let’s look at the fundamentals.

The primary concern in China right now is inflation. Because China does not yet have the ability to export its fiat to other markets the way the U.S. does, its own liquidity injections in the face of the credit crisis have led to severe price increases. In August alone, overall inflation was rated at 6.2% (always double government produced numbers to get true inflation). Food prices jumped 13.4%, while meat and poultry jumped 29.3%. Because these numbers are around 1% lower than in previous months, the Chinese government has prematurely proclaimed a “cooling period”:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/china-business/8751482/China-inflation-cools-as-food-price-rises-slow.html

With harsh inflation continuing unabated, eventually, the Asian nation will be forced to enact abrupt policies. This will likely take the form of a strong Yuan valuation, or a “floating” of the Yuan. A sizable increase in the value of the Chinese currency is the ONLY way that the government will be able to combat rising prices. By increasing the buying power of its citizens, the government allows them to keep pace with rising prices, and eases the tension within the populace which could otherwise lead to civil unrest. For China to ensure that a floating of the Yuan will lead to a much higher value, their forex and treasury holdings will have to fall. Period.

A dumping of the dollar will give the Chinese room to breath, and this space will be needed very soon. The debt ceiling deal made by Congress in the aftermath of the credit downgrade left the rest of the world unimpressed. While the MSM tries to make us forget that this event ever occurred, most foreign investors have not. Markets are anxiously awaiting an announcement from the Fed for further liquidity injections. If this announcement is not made after meetings next week, then it will certainly be made before the end of the year. Ironically, the same quantitative easing that investors are clamoring for today is liable to become the final signal for China to cut its losses and separate from U.S. securities completely. China has been positioned for many months now to take such measures…

Lights Out…

Delusions of Chinese dependency on the U.S consumer still abound, and those who suggest a catastrophic dump of U.S. debt and dollars in the near term are liable to hear the same ignorant talking points we have heard all along:

“The Chinese are better off with us than without us…”

"China needs export dollars from the U.S. to survive…”

“China isn’t equipped to produce goods without U.S. technological savvy…”

"America could simply revert back to industry and production and teach the Chinese a lesson…”

“The U.S. could default on its debts to China and simply walk away…”

“The whole situation is China’s fault because of their artificial devaluation of the Yuan over the decades…”

And on and on it goes. Though I have deconstructed these arguments more instances than I can count in the past, I feel it my duty to at least quickly address them one more time:

U.S. consumption of all goods, not just Chinese goods, has fallen off a cliff since 2008 and is unlikely to recover anytime soon. China has done quite well despite this fall in exports considering the circumstances. With the institution of ASEAN, they barely need us at all.

China is well equipped to produce technological goods without U.S. help, and if Japan is inducted into ASEAN (as I believe they soon will be), they will be even more capable.

America will NOT be able to revert back to an industrial based economy before a dollar collapse escalates to fruition. It took decades to dismantle U.S. industry and ship it overseas.Reeducating a 70% service based society to function in an industrial system, not to mention resurrecting the factory infrastructure necessary to support the nation, would likely take decades to accomplish.

If the U.S. deliberately defaults on debt to China, the global reputation of the dollar would implode, and its world reserve status would be irrevocably lost. We won’t be teaching anyone a “lesson” then.

Yes, China currently manipulates its currency down, but then again, so does the U.S. though quantitative easing. Both sides are dirty. Taking sides in this farce is pure stupidity...

Now that all that has been cleared up (again), the primary point becomes rather direct; the reason it is difficult to predict an exact time frame for an American collapse is because all the pieces are in place to trigger an event right now! There are, of course, stress points within the system that set a time limit, even on global banks and China, but a full spectrum catastrophe is not only a concern for some distant future. Every element needed for the so called “perfect storm” is ever present and ready to ignite at a moments notice. The destructive potential coming from China alone is undeniable. Everyday that the spark is subdued should be treated as a gift, an extra 24 hours of education and preparation. This is how close we are to the edge.It is not for us to be alarmed, but to be ready, and ever aware.

12/9/11 - Fitch warns of rising China credit risk

Fitch Ratings said Thursday that China's credit risk has increased because local governments have become heavily indebted, with a lack of disclosure by financial institutions compounding the problem.

The comments by Fitch, one of the three major credit rating agencies, come amid concerns that borrowings by local authorities in China for expensive public works may overwhelm the ability of some local governments to repay banks.

Senior Director Jonathan Lee of Fitch Ratings in Taiwan said a large chunk of the lending has gone into unprofitable infrastructure, raising the prospect of default.

"Credit risk has risen from an over-extension of loans to local governments and property — both of which have questionable medium-term repayment capacity," Lee said during a conference in Taipei.

Chinese local governments borrowed heavily over the past decade to build subways and other infrastructure that the central government in Beijing initially promised to fund but then pulled out of.

Borrowing by local governments increased after Beijing ordered higher spending on public works as part of its economic stimulus to fend off the 2008 global crisis.

In June, Beijing revealed that local governments have piled up 10.7 trillion yuan ($1.6 trillion) in debt, the equivalent of 25 percent of China's annual economic output. more

9/9/11 - China Buying Gold To Crash US Dollar As Reserve

Wondering why gold at $1850 is cheap, or why gold at double that price will also be cheap, or frankly at any price? Because, as the following leaked cable explains, gold is, to China at least, nothing but the opportunity cost of destroying the dollar’s reserve status. Putting that into dollar terms is, therefore, impractical at best, and illogical at worst. We have a suspicion that the following cable from the US embassy in China is about to go not viral but very much global, and prompt all those mutual fund managers who are on the golden sidelines to dip a toe in the 24 karat pool. The only thing that matters from China’s perspective is that “suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.” Now, what would happen if mutual and pension funds finally comprehend they are massively underinvested in the one asset which China is without a trace of doubt massively accumulating behind the scenes is nothing short of a worldwide scramble, not so much for paper, but every last ounce of physical gold…

From Wikileaks:

3. CHINA’S GOLD RESERVES

“China increases its gold reserves in order to kill two birds with one stone”

“The China Radio International sponsored newspaper World News Journal (Shijie Xinwenbao)(04/28): “According to China’s National Foreign Exchanges Administration China ‘s gold reserves have recently increased. Currently, the majority of its gold reserves have been located in the U.S. and European countries. The U.S. and Europe have always suppressed the rising price of gold. They intend to weaken gold’s function as an international reserve currency. They don’t want to see other countries turning to gold reserves instead of the U.S. dollar or Euro. Therefore, suppressing the price of gold is very beneficial for the U.S. in maintaining the U.S. dollar’s role as the international reserve currency. China’s increased gold reserves will thus act as a model and lead other countries towards reserving more gold. Large gold reserves are also beneficial in promoting the internationalization of the RMB.”

Perhaps now is a good time to remind readers what will happen if and when America’s always behind the curve mutual and pension fund managers finally comprehend that they are massively underinvested in the one best performing asset class.

From The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching (via Casey Research)

You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency protection, inflation hedge, store of value,calamity insurance – many of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the supply and demand imbalance, and you’ve got the basic arguments for why one should hold gold for the foreseeable future.

All of these factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold’s 450% rise over the past 10 years. No, it’s not too late to buy, especially if you don’t own a meaningful amount; and yes, I’m convinced the price is headed much higher, regardless of the corrections we’ll inevitably see. Each of the aforementioned catalysts will force gold’s price higher and higher in the years ahead, especially the currency issues.

But there’s another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and certainly the mainstream media. And I’m convinced that once this sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we’ve ever seen.

The fund management industry handles the bulk of the world’s wealth. These institutions include insurance companies, hedge funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. But the elephant in the room is pension funds. These are institutions that provide retirement income, both public and private.

Global pension assets are estimated to be – drum roll, please – $31.1 trillion. No, that is not a misprint. It is more than twice the size of last year’s GDP in the U.S. ($14.7 trillion).

We know a few hedge fund managers have invested in gold, like John Paulson, David Einhorn, Jean-Marie Eveillard. There are close to twenty mutual funds devoted to gold and precious metals. Lots of gold andsilver bugs have been buying.

So, what about pension funds?

According to estimates by Shayne McGuire in his new book, Hard Money; Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level, the typical pension fund holds about 0.15% of its assets in gold. He estimates another 0.15% is devoted to gold mining stocks, giving us a total of 0.30% – that is, less than one third of one percent of assets committed to the gold sector.

Shayne is head of global research at the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He bases his estimate on the fact that commodities represent about 3% of the total assets in the average pension fund. And of that 3%, about 5% is devoted to gold. It is, by any account, a negligible portion of a fund’s asset allocation.

Now here’s the fun part. Let’s say fund managers as a group realize that bonds, equities, and real estate have become poor or risky investments and so decide to increase their allocation to the gold market. If they doubled their exposure to gold and gold stocks – which would still represent only 0.6% of their total assets – it would amount to $93.3 billion in new purchases.

How much is that? The assets of GLD total $55.2 billion, so this amount of money is 1.7 times bigger than the largest gold ETF. SLV, the largest silver ETF, has net assets of $9.3 billion, a mere one-tenth of that extra allocation.

The market cap of the entire sector of gold stocks (producers only) is about $234 billion. The gold industry would see a 40% increase in new money to the sector. Its market cap would double if pension institutions allocated just 1.2% of their assets to it.

But what if currency issues spiral out of control? What if bonds wither and die? What if real estate takes ten years to recover? What if inflation becomes a rabid dog like it has every other time in history when governments have diluted their currency to this degree? If these funds allocate just 5% of their assets to gold – which would amount to $1.5 trillion – it would overwhelm the system and rocket prices skyward.

And let’s not forget that this is only one class of institution. Insurance companies have about $18.7 trillion in assets. Hedge funds manage approximately $1.7 trillion. Sovereign wealth funds control $3.8 trillion. Then there are mutual funds, ETFs, private equity funds, and private wealth funds. Throw in millions of retail investors like you and me and Joe Sixpack and Jiao Sixpack, and we’re looking in the rear view mirror at $100 trillion.

I don’t know if pension funds will devote that much money to this sector or not. What I do know is thatsovereign debt risks are far from over, the U.S. dollar and other currencies will lose considerably more value against gold, interest rates will most certainly rise in the years ahead, and inflation is just getting started. These forces are in place and building, and if there’s a paradigm shift in how these managers view gold, look out!

I thought of titling this piece, “Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low.” Because once fund managers enter the gold market in mass, this tiny sector will light on fire with blazing speed.

My advice is to not just hope you can jump in once these drivers hit the gas, but to claim your seat during the relative calm of this month’s level prices.

16/8/11 - China Threatens to Use ‘Financial Weapon’ Against America

 By: Gordon G. Chang

On Monday, People’s Daily, China’s leading newspaper, stated it was time for Beijing to consider using its “financial weapon” against the United States.

The Communist Party’s flagship publication suggested that the Chinese government “directly link” its purchases ofUS Treasury debt to Taiwan arms sales and “require” ratings agencies to downgrade the United States in order to force up interest paid to China. China should also “launch limited trade sanctions” against states whose representatives in Congress supportTaiwan. “China-US relations will always be constrained by these people and will continue along a roller coaster pattern if China does not beat them until they feel the pain,” the paper said.

The context for the stinging piece in the party’s self-described mouthpiece may be proposed arms sales to Taiwan, but the general message is clear: China should use its holdings of American obligations to accomplish its many geopolitical aims. “In fact, China has never wanted to use its holdings of US debt as a weapon,” the paper noted. “It is the United States that is forcing it to do so.”

The People’s Daily piece is just the latest of Beijing’s blistering attacks in the last ten days on the debt issue. The official Xinhua News Agency, for instance, issued two recent attacks on the United States. The more important of the two, on Saturday, called for international supervision over Washington’s printing of dollars and suggested consideration of a new international reserve currency to replace the greenback “to avert a catastrophe caused by any single country.”

The first of Xinhua’s suggestions is ludicrous and will never be implemented. The second suggestion reflects Beijing’s fond hopes of dethroning the dollar. Unfortunately for China, America’s money will remain the world’s reserve currency for the foreseeable future simply because there is no alternative to it.

Chinese officials are obviously in huff-and-puff mode, but their tirades reveal they are out to undermine the United States. For all the effort that Washington has put into integrating China into the international community over the last three decades, Beijing refuses to be drawn in.

Chinese officials, in recent days, have essentially declared an economic war on the United States. Perhaps it is time for us to think of China as a geopolitical adversary and not just a friendly trading partner. Beijing, by its own words, has revealed itself to be a foe. The question is whether we will recognize its hostile intent and respond.

20/7/11 - Is China facing an American future?

Posted by MICHAEL SCHUMAN Wednesday, July 20, 2011 at 6:33 am

At first glance, that may sound like a crazy question. The two giants of the global economy appear to be heading in opposite directions. China is the world's up-and-coming superpower, propelled forward by stratospheric growth, advancing industry, a goal-oriented political system and a supposedly superior form of economic management, “state capitalism.” On the other side of the Pacific, the U.S. looks like a bumbling behemoth, its competitiveness on the wane, its political system paralyzed and its future direction uncertain. What could these two economies possibly have in common?

More than you think. Very rapidly, China is beginning to encounter the same economic pressures as the U.S. Some are simply the natural outgrowth of China's supercharged development. Others are being brought about by policy errors – similar, in fact, to those made by the West before the 2008 financial crisis. All of these new pressures are serious and, if not handled properly, could alter the course of China's economic progress.

First of all, China, like the U.S., is facing a challenge from competitors with lower wages. As my colleague Bill Powell recently pointed out, the era of cheap labor in China is over. Wages are growing about 12% a year (in real terms). As a result, China is losing its competitiveness in labor costs to other emerging economies. That puts at risk the low-end, labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing (apparel, shoes, electronics) that has created countless jobs and jumpstarted China's rapid growth. Just like the U.S. has lost factories to lower-wage economies like China, China is already seeing neighbors like Vietnam eat into its dominance in these types of industries.

Such an outcome was an inevitable result of China's economic advancement. But if that advancement is to continue, the Chinese economy is going to have to move “up the value chain” into higher-tech, more innovative industries. This is exactly what the U.S. needs to do to maintain its competitive edge. Yet that's a tough leap to make. Building factories where people stitch together blue jeans or build iPhones is easy. China doesn't require either the technology or design and marketing expertise to generate exports. But to compete in more technologically advanced industries, Chinese firms will have to innovate, improve quality and create brands – just like American companies. If not, China could get stuck in a “middle-income trap,” in which it is more and more difficult to raise the welfare of the middle class – another challenge the U.S. is experiencing today.

Secondly, China is contending with the fallout from fiscal irresponsibility. As Washington is consumed by negotiations over America's massive national debt, the Chinese are in the process of getting a handle on their own sovereign debt problem. As Roya Wolverson detailed in this space recently, China's government debt relative to its GDP has escalated alarmingly in recent years. An audit revealed that local governments, which legally aren't supposed to be able to take on debt at all, have managed nevertheless to amass liabilities equivalent to some 30% of GDP. It is not clear that the Chinese government has a full grasp of how big its debt burden actually is. Premier Wen Jiabao says that the country's national debt is manageable, which could well be the case. But that doesn't mean it isn't a problem that could plague the economy.

And, much like the U.S., repairing national finances comes with major political risks. As politicians in Washington haggle over what to do with middle-class entitlement programs like Medicare, the Chinese are in the process of expanding a much-needed social safety net (improving healthcare, for example) that will continue to put pressure on China's budget.

Third, China's overall debt level is on the rise. Just as the U.S. built up an excessive mountain of debt before the financial crisis (mainly among consumers), China today seems to be making the same mistake. A recent report by rating agency Fitch outlined that debt continues to rise precipitously in China, despite government efforts to slow credit expansion. Here are the scary figures:

Fitch estimates that total net new financing in China could reach 38% of GDP in 2011, down from an average of 42% of GDP in 2009-2010 but still well above the pre-global crisis average of 22%. Fitch estimates that by end-2011 total financing/GDP could reach 185%, up 61pp from 2007. Increases of similar magnitude have been seen elsewhere in the years leading up to banking stress, underscoring the agency's cautious outlook on the Chinese banking sector.

It is difficult to determine with any certainty at what point debt levels become dangerous. But economic expansions driven by expanding debt inevitably come to some kind of bad end, especially for the financial system. I don't see how China can avoid much higher levels of bad loans at its banks. Or the country could run into something even more destabilizing, like a banking crisis. And at some point, China could be looking at a growth-suppressing process of deleveraging, which the U.S. is suffering through now.

Fourth, China is becoming heavily dependent on its property market for growth. Any American can tell you the dangers inherent in that. Though it is difficult to determine if China's housing market is in a bubble (prices have started to soften in some cities), the construction of houses is the major engine of Chinese growth. Here's how UBS economist Jonathan Anderson explained it in a very smart recent study:

Real estate and housing construction pervade the entire mainland growth model. They are the most important determinant of commodity demand, a very big marginal driver of China's external surpluses, and indeed a crucial key to real understanding of household balance sheets, saving and investment behavior and the debate around Chinese rebalancing. In other words (and with only the mildest exaggeration), from a macroeconomic perspective if you don't understand Chinese property, you probably don't understand China.

The mainland gross investment share of its own economy has risen dramatically over the past decade, to a stunning 47% or 48% of GDP as of last year on an estimated basis; this is an absolute record for any economy of significant size in the post-war era, and almost single-handedly explains China's explosive real growth over the same period…The biggest contributor to the trend increase in the investment ratio has been property construction, which rose from 6% of GDP on average during the 1990s to more than 13% of GDP last year when measured on an annual completions basis… And when we talk about property construction what we really mean is residential housing construction;…housing accounted for nearly 75% of total building completions last year. While it's not a mistake to say that China is an investment-led economy, it is arguably more correct to call it a “housing-led” economy.

And much like the American housing bust sent shockwaves through the global economy, a downturn in China's property market could do the same. Anderson proclaimed that China's property industry is “The Most Important Sector in the Universe.” The property sector in China is a primary source of demand for all sorts of things the country buys from the world – like iron ore – as well as a big part of consumer spending. New homeowners loading up their new apartments with furniture and appliances are a key factor behind increases in Chinese consumer spending. So a slowdown of China's property sector would not only slow down the entire economy – and thus act as a drag on global growth – it would also ripple through global supply chains and suppress business for all kinds of commodities and products.

How Beijing deals with these very American-style challenges in coming years will determine the course of China's economy. Will China collapse into crisis, as the U.S. has? Who knows. In some ways, China might be better equipped to tackle these problems. For example, its authoritarian government could prove more efficient in controlling its debt level (though there is no guarantee). But China's corporate sector lags American companies in the kind of skills and expertise necessary to innovate and stay ahead of low-cost competition. And China's policymakers clearly have some tough decisions to make to decrease the economy's reliance on the housing market for growth and control rising debt. So far, they don't seem either able or willing to tackle these issues head on, a problem Washington has had again and again. If China's leaders don't learn from the U.S. experience – something they don't appear to be doing – they could end up facing an American future.

9/7/11 - China's Ghost Cities and Malls

NEW SATELLITE PICTURES OF CHINA'S GHOST CITIES

China plans to build 20 cities a year for the next 20 years. The unacknowledged problem is finding buyers for those hundreds of millions of new homes.

Last year we published images of ghost cities based on a report from Forensic Asia Limited. This week we asked analyst Gillem Tulloch what has happened in the past six months.

"China built more of them," Tulloch said. "China consumes more steel, iron ore and cement per capita than any industrial nation in history. It's all going to railways that will never make money, roads that no one drives on and cities that no one lives in."

"It's like walking into a forest of skyscrapers, but they're all empty," he said of Chenggong.

Tulloch described a recent visit to a fishing village near Hong Kong, where new apartments are selling for up to $80,000. "People there were joking that no one in Denaya could afford to live there," he said. If these apartments sell at all, it is to speculators.

Inflation in China Poses Big Threat to Global Trade

European Pressphoto Agency

Fishermen and sellers in a fishing port in Sanya City of Hainan Province, China.

By DAVID BARBOZA

Published: April 17, 2011

• • Linkedin
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  • PermalinSHANGHAI — As the United States and Europe struggle to get their economies rolling again, China is having the opposite problem: figuring out how to keep its revved-up growth engine from generating runaway inflation.

Related in Opinion

• Room for Debate: China's Scary Housing Bubble

Readers shared their thoughts on this article.

The latest sign that things were moving too fast came on Sunday, when China’s central bank ordered the biggest banks to set aside more cash reserves.

The move essentially reduces the amount of money available for loans, and is an attempt to cool down the economy. It follows the government announcement on Friday that China’s economy was growing at an annual rate of 9.7 percent, by far the strongest performance by any of the world’s biggest economies.
Because China is now the world’s second largest economy, after the United States, and because the country has been a leading source of global growth during the last two years, money problems here can reverberate from Wal-Mart to Wall Street and the world beyond.
High inflation endangers China’s status as the low-cost workshop for the world. And if the government’s efforts to fight inflation cause the economy to stumble, that will cloud the outlook for international businesses — whether multinationals like General Electric or copper miners in Chile — that have been counting on China for growth.
Inside China, inflation also poses a threat to social stability, a particular worry for Beijing, especially since authoritarian governments in North Africa and the Middle East have become the focus of popular uprisings.

“China’s inflation is a big concern, and actual numbers are worse than officially reported,” said Carmen M. Reinhart, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

She says Beijing is engaged in an economic tug of war, trying to encourage sustainable growth while struggling to control inflation.

Food prices are soaring, and the government said on Friday that the consumer price index in March had risen 5.4 percent, its sharpest increase in nearly three years. Hoping to tame inflation, in the last six months Beijing has tightened restrictions on bank lending and raised interest rates on loans (to discourage borrowing) and deposits (to encourage savings).

The decision on Sunday to raise the capital reserve ratio for banks, to 20.5 percent of their cash, was the fourth such increase this year.

The government has also increased agricultural subsidies to curb food prices, and tried to forbid some Chinese companies from raising consumer prices. These efforts stand in contrast to those in the United States, where inflation is low (the underlying annual inflation rate was 1.2 percent last month) and where the debate centers on how much to stimulate the economy given the size of the deficit. Inflation is also running low in Europe, where some countries are imposing harsh austerity measures to pare their budget gaps.

But analysts say the results of this economic management have been mixed. Growth has begun to moderate from its torrid pace of about 10 percent annual growth but inflation has become worse.
For example, housing prices continue to climb even though Beijing has long promised to curb the property market and to spend billions of dollars over the next few years on affordable housing.
The average apartment in central Shanghai now costs more than $500,000. Even in second-tier cities like Chengdu, in central China, the price of a typical home costs about 25 times the average annual income of residents.
Analysts say too much of the country’s growth continues to be tied to inflationary spending on real estate development and government investment in roads, railways and other multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects.
In the first quarter of 2011, fixed asset investment — a broad measure of building activity — jumped 25 percent from the period a year earlier, and real estate investment soared 37 percent, the government said on Friday.
Some of the inflationary factors, like global commodity and food prices, may be beyond Beijing’s ability to influence. Gasoline prices have also jumped sharply, in line with global oil prices. As the world’s largest car market, China’s demand for fuel is soaring, and gasoline prices are close to $4.50 a gallon, up from $3.82 a gallon in late 2009.

Rising food prices, meanwhile, are showing up in various ways — including higher prices at fast-food chains, like Master Kong, which in January raised the price of its popular instant noodles by about 10 percent.

China’s current supercharged boom began in early 2009, during the global financial crisis, when Beijing moved aggressively to increase growth with a $586 billion stimulus package and record lending by state-run banks.

The loose monetary policy, and big investments in local government projects, did revive economic growth. But even at the time there were already concerns about soaring property prices, undisciplined bank lending and the huge debts being amassed by local governments.